Via Jane Taber:
"Regardless of the narrow gap, Mr. Wright does not believe there will be an election any time soon because no one can win a majority government at this time. “The reality is that if everybody knows that all you’re going to get is a minority you can take your time.”
The Bloc is just too strong in Quebec to free up seats necessary for either the Conservatives or Liberals to form a majority government, Mr. Wright added.
But Mr. Graves has a different take: “Wow! To be blunt, I was concerned about our poll, as it came in the summer, and it was a pretty abrupt shift,” he told The Globe on Tuesday morning.
“The Ipsos poll suggests that our poll did catch a major shift in voter sentiments. What is remarkable about this shift is that it comes in the midst of the summer, a period when the public are typically blissfully unconcerned with politics. This might suggest that the negative effects of the census decision on the government may be muted to this point.”
If this is true, he said, the chances of a fall election “have now shifted to more likely than not.”
And that is because the opposition could sense that this “new shift for the PM” could represent a “critical mass of frustration within the electorate and in particular a growing fatigue amongst the more educated portion.”
Mr. Graves added that the government now has a choice: continue to be “battered” by its unpopular decision on the census or “flip flop on the basis of poor polls.”"
Read the rest. H/t to Brock.
I don't like to indulge in election speculation, particularly since just about everybody except Andrew Coyne seems to be wrong about such things these days. I've heard predictions for this fall or the next - and both options seem about equally valid.
But above and beyond a mere election, I think this 'critical mass of frustration' presents a very interesting potential change in Canadian politics. It's a cliche that Canadians are rather laid-back and apathetic as a nation - and a rather untrue cliche to boot - but the fact is that we do have a political process that is growing increasingly inept at doing much more than entrenching certain interests.
I suppose it was always this way, really, and probably always will be, but perhaps people are starting to grow impatient with the lackluster pace. Perhaps they're finally starting to demand a little more from their politicians.
I'd like to think so, at any rate.
